USDJPY 30M Chart - Common Mistake

Based on the above chart, top tail was formed at 123.56 after a big bull candle and bottom tail was formed at 121.66 after a tiny bull candle. Without proper experiences and tools, it feels like we are at the bottom of the market. Usually, under situation like this, most traders hoping for a huge rally (prices going up). However, in FOREX market, we are not suppose to jump into the market without proper analysis.

So, I draw a Fibonacci retracement that connect top tail and bottom tail (which you can see in the picture above). Greedy traders (like me, unfortunately) hoping for a huge profit and jump to buy it without proper analysis. One more thing, I have no patient to wait for the next candle to confirm the trade. If the price move below 0.0% or 121.66, DO NOT open any trade due to high level of uncertainty.

We can clearly see what happen next. The price move below 0.0% or 121.66 which violates the trading rules and push the price even lower. Clearly, 0.00% or 121.66 is not the bottom of the market.